My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 15 2021 10022 43871 318 91 558 727
January 16 2021 10059 43951 321 92 511 764
January 17 2021 10106 44079 321 92 476 731
January 18 2021 10124 44151 321 92 442 697
January 19 2021 10133 44234 322 92 413 669
January 20 2021 10177 44372 322 92 388 629
January 21 2021 10233 44497 322 95 424 603
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 2.7 5.9% 25 0.22% 40 0.35%
10-19 5 4.6 13.4% 57 0.42% 80 0.59%
20-29 9 7.7 20.5% 87 0.42% 134 0.64%
30-39 14 6.4 15.6% 66 0.49% 86 0.63%
40-49 10 5.7 14.9% 63 0.6% 84 0.8%
50-59 5 3.4 12.7% 54 0.43% 81 0.65%
60-69 1 3.3 10.6% 45 0.39% 59 0.51%
70+ 5 2.1 6.4% 27 0.26% 39 0.37%
All ages 56 36.0 100% 424 0.41% 603 0.58%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 15 2021 6454 25934 192 72 439 531
January 16 2021 6484 26007 193 72 417 561
January 17 2021 6513 26068 193 72 420 541
January 18 2021 6534 26121 196 72 358 530
January 19 2021 6543 26168 196 72 316 528
January 20 2021 6560 26237 197 74 296 493
January 21 2021 6599 26316 199 74 304 506
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 2.0 8.2% 25 0.32% 40 0.52%
10-19 9 3.0 8.9% 27 0.32% 52 0.62%
20-29 1 2.1 10.2% 31 0.44% 64 0.9%
30-39 6 4.1 18.4% 56 0.67% 87 1.04%
40-49 9 3.6 15.1% 46 0.59% 75 0.97%
50-59 3 4.3 16.1% 49 0.51% 75 0.77%
60-69 4 2.3 10.5% 32 0.38% 57 0.68%
70+ 3 2.9 12.5% 38 0.53% 56 0.79%
All ages 39 24.3 100% 304 0.47% 506 0.78%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 15 2021 4840 17360 204 63 273 333
January 16 2021 4861 17391 207 64 276 348
January 17 2021 4889 17435 208 64 260 355
January 18 2021 4911 17464 208 64 232 362
January 19 2021 4913 17478 209 65 208 346
January 20 2021 4929 17540 209 66 205 344
January 21 2021 4950 17565 210 66 213 321
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.9 4.2% 9 0.17% 15 0.28%
10-19 2 4.4 16.4% 35 0.64% 48 0.88%
20-29 3 2.6 12.2% 26 0.57% 40 0.88%
30-39 4 2.1 12.7% 27 0.5% 41 0.76%
40-49 3 2.3 12.2% 26 0.52% 44 0.88%
50-59 1 3.9 18.8% 40 0.59% 55 0.81%
60-69 4 2.0 10.8% 23 0.36% 38 0.6%
70+ 3 2.6 12.7% 27 0.43% 40 0.63%
All ages 21 20.7 100% 213 0.47% 321 0.71%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 15 2021 10960 47154 280 65 574 802
January 16 2021 11005 47248 283 67 523 845
January 17 2021 11025 47332 284 67 480 796
January 18 2021 11078 47454 284 67 485 771
January 19 2021 11102 47568 287 67 411 716
January 20 2021 11163 47693 287 68 446 681
January 21 2021 11193 47815 292 69 418 648
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 3.7 8.4% 35 0.3% 36 0.3%
10-19 3 5.9 13.2% 55 0.33% 71 0.43%
20-29 5 5.4 16.7% 70 0.33% 118 0.55%
30-39 6 6.3 18.2% 76 0.56% 125 0.92%
40-49 2 5.1 13.2% 55 0.4% 95 0.7%
50-59 8 4.7 11.7% 49 0.35% 75 0.53%
60-69 1 3.9 9.8% 41 0.29% 72 0.51%
70+ 1 3.0 8.9% 37 0.28% 56 0.43%
All ages 30 38.0 100% 418 0.35% 648 0.55%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 15 2021 36126 300769 1076 218 1984 2587
January 16 2021 36297 301630 1082 218 1960 2758
January 17 2021 36433 302100 1087 218 1710 2626
January 18 2021 36522 302581 1091 218 1514 2509
January 19 2021 36563 303049 1099 218 1374 2421
January 20 2021 36589 303293 1108 228 1198 2252
January 21 2021 36746 304217 1109 228 1220 2023
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 5.7 5.3% 65 0.11% 118 0.2%
10-19 18 14.4 13% 158 0.22% 275 0.39%
20-29 40 27.9 25.1% 306 0.29% 508 0.49%
30-39 32 18.6 17.5% 213 0.28% 332 0.43%
40-49 24 15.0 13.7% 167 0.25% 300 0.46%
50-59 21 11.9 11.6% 141 0.21% 239 0.36%
60-69 11 9.0 8.2% 100 0.18% 149 0.27%
70+ 7 6.0 5.7% 70 0.14% 102 0.21%
All ages 157 108.4 100% 1220 0.22% 2023 0.37%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 15 2021 518251 2427631 22923 5322 26910 35244
January 16 2021 520188 2432726 23026 5450 25441 36103
January 17 2021 521794 2437794 23076 5451 23256 35263
January 18 2021 522877 2441843 23130 5470 20865 34939
January 19 2021 524402 2445399 23244 5512 19344 33061
January 20 2021 525924 2450522 23363 5562 19034 31177
January 21 2021 528101 2457032 23445 5607 19755 29563
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 127 102.9 5.8% 1151 0.18% 1697 0.26%
10-19 289 222.3 12.1% 2385 0.32% 3623 0.48%
20-29 419 289.4 17.2% 3392 0.45% 5161 0.68%
30-39 326 264.1 15.3% 3020 0.4% 4495 0.59%
40-49 289 228.6 13.7% 2698 0.39% 4059 0.58%
50-59 297 255.7 14.6% 2882 0.35% 4338 0.53%
60-69 212 196.1 11.4% 2257 0.3% 3267 0.43%
70+ 218 172.1 10% 1970 0.31% 2923 0.46%
All ages 2177 1731.3 100% 19755 0.34% 29563 0.51%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
57.6 58.8 64 36 59.1 25.3%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
78.3 24.3 41.7 26.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
70.9 20.7 27.1 36.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
54.8 42.9 55.4 38 69.7 25.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
37 38.7 48.9 108.4 226.3 15.5%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
50.8 47.9 68.2 1731.3 2908.4 25.6%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.6 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-11 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4806"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red