Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 2021 | 10022 | 43871 | 318 | 91 | 558 | 727 |
| January 16 2021 | 10059 | 43951 | 321 | 92 | 511 | 764 |
| January 17 2021 | 10106 | 44079 | 321 | 92 | 476 | 731 |
| January 18 2021 | 10124 | 44151 | 321 | 92 | 442 | 697 |
| January 19 2021 | 10133 | 44234 | 322 | 92 | 413 | 669 |
| January 20 2021 | 10177 | 44372 | 322 | 92 | 388 | 629 |
| January 21 2021 | 10233 | 44497 | 322 | 95 | 424 | 603 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 2.7 | 5.9% | 25 | 0.22% | 40 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.6 | 13.4% | 57 | 0.42% | 80 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 7.7 | 20.5% | 87 | 0.42% | 134 | 0.64% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 6.4 | 15.6% | 66 | 0.49% | 86 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 5.7 | 14.9% | 63 | 0.6% | 84 | 0.8% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3.4 | 12.7% | 54 | 0.43% | 81 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.3 | 10.6% | 45 | 0.39% | 59 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.1 | 6.4% | 27 | 0.26% | 39 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 56 | 36.0 | 100% | 424 | 0.41% | 603 | 0.58% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 2021 | 6454 | 25934 | 192 | 72 | 439 | 531 |
| January 16 2021 | 6484 | 26007 | 193 | 72 | 417 | 561 |
| January 17 2021 | 6513 | 26068 | 193 | 72 | 420 | 541 |
| January 18 2021 | 6534 | 26121 | 196 | 72 | 358 | 530 |
| January 19 2021 | 6543 | 26168 | 196 | 72 | 316 | 528 |
| January 20 2021 | 6560 | 26237 | 197 | 74 | 296 | 493 |
| January 21 2021 | 6599 | 26316 | 199 | 74 | 304 | 506 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.0 | 8.2% | 25 | 0.32% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 3.0 | 8.9% | 27 | 0.32% | 52 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.1 | 10.2% | 31 | 0.44% | 64 | 0.9% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 4.1 | 18.4% | 56 | 0.67% | 87 | 1.04% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 3.6 | 15.1% | 46 | 0.59% | 75 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.3 | 16.1% | 49 | 0.51% | 75 | 0.77% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.3 | 10.5% | 32 | 0.38% | 57 | 0.68% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.9 | 12.5% | 38 | 0.53% | 56 | 0.79% |
| All ages | 39 | 24.3 | 100% | 304 | 0.47% | 506 | 0.78% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 2021 | 4840 | 17360 | 204 | 63 | 273 | 333 |
| January 16 2021 | 4861 | 17391 | 207 | 64 | 276 | 348 |
| January 17 2021 | 4889 | 17435 | 208 | 64 | 260 | 355 |
| January 18 2021 | 4911 | 17464 | 208 | 64 | 232 | 362 |
| January 19 2021 | 4913 | 17478 | 209 | 65 | 208 | 346 |
| January 20 2021 | 4929 | 17540 | 209 | 66 | 205 | 344 |
| January 21 2021 | 4950 | 17565 | 210 | 66 | 213 | 321 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.9 | 4.2% | 9 | 0.17% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 4.4 | 16.4% | 35 | 0.64% | 48 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.6 | 12.2% | 26 | 0.57% | 40 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.1 | 12.7% | 27 | 0.5% | 41 | 0.76% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.3 | 12.2% | 26 | 0.52% | 44 | 0.88% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 3.9 | 18.8% | 40 | 0.59% | 55 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.0 | 10.8% | 23 | 0.36% | 38 | 0.6% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.6 | 12.7% | 27 | 0.43% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 21 | 20.7 | 100% | 213 | 0.47% | 321 | 0.71% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 2021 | 10960 | 47154 | 280 | 65 | 574 | 802 |
| January 16 2021 | 11005 | 47248 | 283 | 67 | 523 | 845 |
| January 17 2021 | 11025 | 47332 | 284 | 67 | 480 | 796 |
| January 18 2021 | 11078 | 47454 | 284 | 67 | 485 | 771 |
| January 19 2021 | 11102 | 47568 | 287 | 67 | 411 | 716 |
| January 20 2021 | 11163 | 47693 | 287 | 68 | 446 | 681 |
| January 21 2021 | 11193 | 47815 | 292 | 69 | 418 | 648 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.7 | 8.4% | 35 | 0.3% | 36 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 5.9 | 13.2% | 55 | 0.33% | 71 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 5.4 | 16.7% | 70 | 0.33% | 118 | 0.55% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 6.3 | 18.2% | 76 | 0.56% | 125 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.1 | 13.2% | 55 | 0.4% | 95 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4.7 | 11.7% | 49 | 0.35% | 75 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.9 | 9.8% | 41 | 0.29% | 72 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.0 | 8.9% | 37 | 0.28% | 56 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 30 | 38.0 | 100% | 418 | 0.35% | 648 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 2021 | 36126 | 300769 | 1076 | 218 | 1984 | 2587 |
| January 16 2021 | 36297 | 301630 | 1082 | 218 | 1960 | 2758 |
| January 17 2021 | 36433 | 302100 | 1087 | 218 | 1710 | 2626 |
| January 18 2021 | 36522 | 302581 | 1091 | 218 | 1514 | 2509 |
| January 19 2021 | 36563 | 303049 | 1099 | 218 | 1374 | 2421 |
| January 20 2021 | 36589 | 303293 | 1108 | 228 | 1198 | 2252 |
| January 21 2021 | 36746 | 304217 | 1109 | 228 | 1220 | 2023 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.7 | 5.3% | 65 | 0.11% | 118 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 14.4 | 13% | 158 | 0.22% | 275 | 0.39% |
| 20-29 | 40 | 27.9 | 25.1% | 306 | 0.29% | 508 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 18.6 | 17.5% | 213 | 0.28% | 332 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 24 | 15.0 | 13.7% | 167 | 0.25% | 300 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 11.9 | 11.6% | 141 | 0.21% | 239 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 9.0 | 8.2% | 100 | 0.18% | 149 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 7 | 6.0 | 5.7% | 70 | 0.14% | 102 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 157 | 108.4 | 100% | 1220 | 0.22% | 2023 | 0.37% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 2021 | 518251 | 2427631 | 22923 | 5322 | 26910 | 35244 |
| January 16 2021 | 520188 | 2432726 | 23026 | 5450 | 25441 | 36103 |
| January 17 2021 | 521794 | 2437794 | 23076 | 5451 | 23256 | 35263 |
| January 18 2021 | 522877 | 2441843 | 23130 | 5470 | 20865 | 34939 |
| January 19 2021 | 524402 | 2445399 | 23244 | 5512 | 19344 | 33061 |
| January 20 2021 | 525924 | 2450522 | 23363 | 5562 | 19034 | 31177 |
| January 21 2021 | 528101 | 2457032 | 23445 | 5607 | 19755 | 29563 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 127 | 102.9 | 5.8% | 1151 | 0.18% | 1697 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 289 | 222.3 | 12.1% | 2385 | 0.32% | 3623 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 419 | 289.4 | 17.2% | 3392 | 0.45% | 5161 | 0.68% |
| 30-39 | 326 | 264.1 | 15.3% | 3020 | 0.4% | 4495 | 0.59% |
| 40-49 | 289 | 228.6 | 13.7% | 2698 | 0.39% | 4059 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 297 | 255.7 | 14.6% | 2882 | 0.35% | 4338 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 212 | 196.1 | 11.4% | 2257 | 0.3% | 3267 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 218 | 172.1 | 10% | 1970 | 0.31% | 2923 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 2177 | 1731.3 | 100% | 19755 | 0.34% | 29563 | 0.51% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.6 | 58.8 | 64 | 36 | 59.1 | 25.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78.3 | 24.3 | 41.7 | 26.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70.9 | 20.7 | 27.1 | 36.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.8 | 42.9 | 55.4 | 38 | 69.7 | 25.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 38.7 | 48.9 | 108.4 | 226.3 | 15.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.8 | 47.9 | 68.2 | 1731.3 | 2908.4 | 25.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.6 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-11 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4806"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges